Many Southern states, including Florida and Georgia, will experience a mostly dry winter with above normal temperatures. In the southern Plains and areas of Texas, the winter will largely have dry periods overall with few winter storms. Farmers' Almanac released a similar prediction for most of the country earlier this year in their winter outlook. The guide also flagged certain dates to expect heavy rain and snowfall along the Atlantic Seaboard this winter: January , February , February , March , and March Enjoy that apple cider for now.
These monthly temperature extremes in February were large enough to change the generally warm, coast-to-coast pattern seen during December and January into the final winter temperature anomaly observed above. A negative PNA phase is associated with a ridge of higher pressure over the western Gulf of Alaska and the eastern United States and a trough of lower pressure over the northwestern United States. This pattern results in below-average temperatures over the West and Canada and above-average temperatures over the Southeast, which is exactly what happened in February.
But what caused this pattern? The answer could be atmospheric randomness. Even with influencing factors, the circulation over the Pacific and North America decided to do its own thing. And while there has been considerable progress in our ability to forecast seasonal climate, it is still incredibly difficult to impossible to predict how certain natural climate phenomena will evolve two to three months in advance.
But that is not to say that seasonal predictions are useless based on one poor forecast, and this is why we encourage folks to play the long game. Winter temperature outlooks since have an average HSS of In fact, only a few outlooks dating back over the last five years have been worse than a roll of a three-sided die.
It just so happened that the recent winter outlook was one of those forecasts. When we wrote about the winter outlook for the ENSO blog last fall that was in relation to the winter outlook made in October. While similar, the two forecasts were different. Also, the winter outlook actually covers meteorological winter, December-February, and not the period from the winter solstice through spring equinox. Well-above and well-below refer to the top or bottom third of observed winter average temperatures or precipitation during the climatological reference period, which is currently Amazingly, the last month in which the global average temperature was below its average for the 20th century was in February , more than 30 years ago, according to the U.
National Weather Service. It is important to note that although Earth, on average, has been warming for decades, not every place is or will be warmer than normal each season.
Remember: Other factors are at play, including the normal variation in weather that occurs from day to day and year to year. The result is that —18 winter temperatures will be colder than last winter, they will likely still be above normal in the eastern and north-central states, with below-normal temperatures the rule from the Gulf States westward to California and from the Intermountain region westward to the Pacific Northwest. Well I would have to say ya all at the farmers almanac seem to be spot on coming from where im setting Jackson, Mi.
FEAR that my pa-paw was rolling over in his grave the mer thought of me "second guessing" anything that he had taught me.. Hasn't steered me wrong in 44yrs. I haven't seen that much snow during the Christmas Holidays since I was a kid and that was 50 years ago! We broke all kind of records for stretches of days below zero. I think it was 13 straight days. There is no way this was an average winter.
The lake effect snow from Lake Michigan really dumped on us this year. My poor dogs were getting cabin fever bad and so was their momma! Then, the severe cold backed off and there were some relatively key word here mild, even pleasant, days. Spring begins on March Lots of people, including us here in New Hampshire, have had cabin fever at some point this season.
And if there comes a time that we do not have a winter … well, we might look back on these days fondly. Been C low to C high. And snow like Crazy never had this much so early in the Year. Usually spring storms bring in this much. Then it starts melting right away!
This has been a brutal winter, hit C for a few days in Jan! The Southeast Winter outlook was way off.
Warmer than normal? These predictions have been far off for the most part. Southwest ohio has been COLD, way more then most winters.. Breaking records all the time since winter started. We have had much more snow then usual although I don't think it's much compared to history, just the last several winters.
But many other places are experiencing way way more snow, even the south has been getting hit with snow. Houston has had coldest Temps and snow! I mean, this overall prediction graph is wrong.
So, so much for this map forecast. It's much colder than normal in So Okla. We're usually in the low 50's in Jan and it's been mostly in the 30's or low 40's for highs since late December. It is so cold inside my house that our canned food has icy slush in them. We put things inside the fridge to keep them warm.
Fish tank and dogs water bowl froze solid. Have to bundle up to use the restroom since our only heat is in one bedroom. Luckily we still have running water. We all hibernate in one room with space heaters. I hope and pray that we do Mmhmmm ot have any ice storms with power outages this winter or we will be in big trouble!
Why do we have to live so poorly, you might be asking yourself? Because social security thinks a man in a wheelchair, with seizures, cognitive impairment, hand tremors, breathing problems, and nerve damage is "not disabled" and can work a "light sedentary job". So I, his wife, am stuck at home caring for him and cant work because of this. So I hope and pray to the good Lord with every ounce of my being that winter in oklahoma remains dry.
So that there are no power outages. Because we have nowhere to go and no money to afford anything. Thanks so much. Tara in Ga-wow could this be any more wrong? So much for solar spots and global warming! We need the rain but not with temps like these. Sorry, sunspot-worshipers.
You got it bass-ackwards. Looks like the East is the cold place this winter, and the West the warm place. Also, much of the East is in drought. Not "wet. I keep waiting for winter to begin and it's just not happening. It's too warm, and very dry. Flagstaff has NO snow on the peaks at all. Nary a flake. In Yavapai county, we have not even had a dusting of snow Worst winter yet.
If I wanted warm all year round, I'd live in Phoenix. This sucks. We are custom to this kind of weather, we are New Englanders. At the inaugural event at the stadium in November, seven people were treated for hypothermia. Other teams have come prepared. US athletes will wear electrically heated jackets powered by a battery pack that tucks into an inside pocket.
Those in the stands waiting to see the lighting of the Olympic torch will have to manage with a packet of supplies that includes a seat-warmer, blanket, windbreaker and knitted hat.
The small army of volunteers at Olympic venues have also taken precautions, wearing matching insulated trousers and thick coats.
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